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The Future of Conflict: Ukraine

August 5, 2019 | Expert Insights

Background

In November 2013, the crisis in Ukraine began with protests in the capital of Kyiv against President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to reject a deal for greater economic integration with the EU. Following a violent crackdown by state security forces, which unfortunately resulted in drawing an even greater number of protesters and escalating the conflict, Yanukovych fled the country in February. 

A month later, Russian troops invaded Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and proceeded to formally annex it after Crimeans voted to join the Russian Federation in a disputed local referendum. This, in turn, heightened ethnic divisions and led to pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk to hold their referendums to declare independence from Ukraine. For the last five years, an armed conflict between Ukrainian soldiers and Russian-backed separatists has engulfed the region, killing more than ten thousand people in the process.

Analysis

In July 2014, a Malaysian Airlines flight was shot down over Ukrainian airspace killing all 298 onboard. This escalated the situation into an international crisis, thus putting the US and the EU at odds with Russia, as investigators concluded that the missile responsible for the destruction was indeed built and provided by Moscow. In April 2016, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) announced its deployment of four battalions, along with two US Army tank brigades to Eastern Europe in a manoeuvre to bolster deterrence presence there.

In November 2018, Russian ships attacked and boarded three Ukrainian vessels in the Crimean port of Azov near the Black Sea, citing that Ukraine had violated Russian waters. However, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) found that it was Russia that violated international law, as the two battling nations had signed a bilateral treaty in 2003 guaranteeing both of them free shipping in the area. 

Meanwhile, fighting in the Donbas region continues, and civilians living along the frontlines - abandoned by both Kyiv and the separatists - are paying the ultimate price. Neither Ukraine nor Russia has taken steps to end the war. Kyiv refuses to devolve power to Donbas until Russia withdraws its arms and personnel from separatist-held areas, which Moscow is unwilling to do. Moreover, proposals for possible peacekeeping missions have made little or no headway.

Counterpoint

Putin waged wars in Chechnya in the early 2000s, annexed Ossetia from Georgia in 2008 and launched a successful cyber attack on Estonia without any Western intervention. In spite of all this, Ukraine is far larger than all of these states and borders the EU directly, which does give Putin cause for concern.

Assessment

  • Putin’s standoff in Ukraine boosted his popularity rating in Russia to 80%. To maintain this popularity, he is likely to continue this battle despite the heavy costs.
  • Putin is well aware that NATO won’t directly protect Ukraine since it is not a member, and it is this fact that emboldens him to make further advances there.
  • A majority of the small countries bordering Russia are worried that if Ukraine falls, they could be the next target for Putin. They can expect little to no help from the EU – since it either depends on Russia for half its gas, and also since many European businesses have profitable operations in Russia.
  • With regard to a possible cessation of hostilities, Ukraine is unlikely to budge immediately before elections (parliamentary polls are due before the end of the year).
  • Russia may give in to Ukraine in the Sea of Azov at the cost of keeping separatist-held areas afloat, but it is unlikely to give up influence in the Donbas anytime soon. 
  • The Ukrainian elections/domestic developments in Russia might bring opportunities for peace making, although the danger of escalation is ever-present.

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Image Courtesy: crf.com