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The Future of Conflict: Pakistan

June 29, 2019 | Expert Insights

Background

Islamabad has had a strained relationship with Baloch nationalists, whose issue is that locals haven’t benefited from the resources of the province. For years, natural gas from the Sui region of Balochistan fuelled power plants, factories and stoves across Pakistan. Despite this, the federal government has given the province a minimal share of the national budget.

According to a 2017 study, around 90% of the settlements in the province do not have access to clean drinking water; and residents of the region earn significantly less than the national average. 

Analysis

The latest round of conflict started in the early 2000s, as a small group of militants began targeting security forces. The conflict intensified after a tribal leader, Akbar Bugti, was killed in battle by the armed forces. 

Since then, the demands of certain nationalists have morphed from political autonomy to all-out independence. According to Frederic Grare, a South Asia security expert, it was the State’s repressive response that radicalised most elements of the Baloch nationalist movement.

Balochistan is home to the port of Gwadar, which is run by a Chinese operator. The province features prominently in Beijing’s multibillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative. As a part of the standoff, separatists have targeted Chinese engineers working on different projects, and even attacked the Chinese Consulate in Karachi last year. 

In retaliation, security forces have been accused of killing and dumping the bodies of suspected militants without a fair trial. For years, the dead bodies of missing Baloch activists have surfaced in different parts of the province. Foreign interference, shifting tribal loyalties, and the presence of religious extremists have further compounded the problem. 

As the violence intensifies, the emerging geopolitical context creates incentives for a number of external actors to pursue their own interests through supporting one armed group or another. Balochistan is already a sore point in relations between Pakistan and its neighbours. Thus, in the long-run, policies of interference would fuel further instability in the province, which could destabilise the region.

Counterfactual

Despite such widespread instability, a majority of the population does not support the separatists, and continue to back local political parties, which aim to use the legislature to address day-to-day grievances. 

As a result, the strength and intensity of the separatist insurgency, although still prevalent, has gradually declined since 2013, when elections resulted in a coalition provincial administration. Ethno-nationalist political parties headed the region’s civil administration until 2017, despite remaining hostage to the functioning of the counter-insurgency campaign. 

Assessment

Our assessment is that the grievances of the Baloch people are political, and can only be addressed through a political process – one that is not suppressed, coerced or manipulated. We feel that the primary responsibility for facilitating this political process falls on Pakistani state institutions. Ending the innumerable human rights abuses is of utmost importance, as well as establishing accountability for all civil and military operations.

At the same time, Baloch insurgents have to stop their armed violence against civilians and align to nonviolent, civil and political activism.  We believe that such a move should be part of a paradigm shift in Pakistan from a centralised and military-dominated state to a civilian-led, developmental, and federal state. Political negotiations, although complicated, should be at the fore, and grievances must be worked out through diplomacy and compromise.

 

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